______First what if NK Launched????
Here’s what happens if the North pulls the trigger.
What Would Happen If A Launch Appeared Imminent?
The U.S. and its allies in the region are by no means unprepared for a North Korean nuclear attack.
The U.S. and South Korea both have preemptive strike plans for a situation in which a North Korean nuclear attack appears imminent, and while Japan is considering new options, it still relies heavily on U.S. defense.
South Korea has a three-stage defense system, the first stage of which is a preemptive strike option designed to eliminate the North’s offensive capabilities. The “Kill Chain” preemptive strike system detects signs of an impending nuclear missile launch and strikes the North’s nuclear weapons sites and missile bases with cruise missiles and other weaponry.
The U.S. and South Korea also have a joint response plan, Operations Plan (OPLAN) 5015.
While the specifics for OPLAN 5015 are classified, the plan is believed to consolidate previous contingency plans, specifically OPLAN 5029 (internal instability in North Korea), OPLAN 5027 (preparations for an all-out war), and a peacetime plan involving localized provocations from North Korea. OPLAN 5015 is suspected to call for preemptive strikes on the North’s essential military facilities and weapons, and possibly North Korean leadership.
In the event that a nuclear missile strike appeared imminent, allied forces might attempt to eliminate the North’s missiles at launch. Mike Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last year that the U.S. could move to “take out launch capabilities on the launchpad” if North Korea appeared poised to launch a nuclear armed-missile.
The U.S. and South Korea regularly train for such contingencies. For example, during the annual Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises, U.S. and South Korean troops practice a “4D” operational plan which involves preemptive military options to detect, disrupt, destroy, and defend against North Korean strikes. The focus is precision strikes on the enemy’s core military facilities and weapons systems.
The challenge is that more and more of North Korea’s missiles are on mobile launchers and scattered about the country. Furthermore, the Korean People’s Army (KPA) has started using solid-fueled missiles, which require significantly less preparation time as they can be fueled in advance and need only a limited crew. Solid-fueled missiles can be fired with less warning and are much harder to track, making them less vulnerable to preemptive strikes.
Another issue is that preemptive strikes on North Korea would be much harder to justify diplomatically, especially if war breaks out in the aftermath, which is practically guaranteed.
What If The Nukes Are Already In The Air?
If a North Korean missile makes it into the air, there are plans for that situation as well.
South Korea and Japan rely on tiered missile defense.
Stage two of South Korea’s three-stage defense system is the Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system, which is designed to intercept incoming missiles. The U.S. is bolstering South Korean defense through the deployment of a THAAD battery to South Korea, a process that began after North Korea fired four missiles into the Sea of Japan a few weeks ago.
THAAD’s Army Navy/Transportable Radar Surveillance (AN/TYP-2) X-band radar can be configured to one of two settings: forward-base mode and terminal mode. In the latter, the radar has a range of several hundred miles and can facilitate the elimination of missiles in the terminal phase of flight. In the former, the radar’s range is extended, making it possible for THAAD to target projectiles in the initial or launch phase.
To ease China’s concerns about the radar’s ability to peer into its territory, the U.S. has agreed to configure THAAD in terminal mode. China continues to express opposition to the deployment.
THAAD is an important step for South Korean missile defense.
“THAAD is better than anything South Korea has or will have for decades,” Bruce Klingner, who specializes in Korean and Japanese affairs as the senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation, told TheDCNF, “It is imperative that we deploy it to augment the defense of Korea and the U.S. forces deployed there.”
There are also a number of Aegis destroyers operating in the waters off of South Korea. The U.S. has several in the region; Japan has six, and South Korea has three. The Aegis ballistic missile system can track multiple missiles simultaneously and intercept enemy projectiles as needed.
There are certain gaps in South Korea’s defense though. For starters, South Korea’s KAMD is not incorporated into the broader allied defense system, thus weakening its overall effectiveness. Also, the South is particularly vulnerable to submarine-launched ballistic missiles, which the North successfully tested last year.
Japan is much more “forward leaning” in its defense, Klingner notes. Japan has Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-2 and 3 systems, Aegis destroyers and SM-3 interceptors, and Japan is considering deploying THAAD and Aegis Ashore units on Japanese soil to boost national defense.
The U.S. has ground-based midcourse defense systems in Fort Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.
Anti-missile systems have their limitations though.
Klingner remarked that “certainly, there is that possibility” that a nuclear-armed ballistic missile could slip through allied defenses, especially given that most regional missile defense systems have never been tested in actual battle conditions.
“Missile defenses help reduce the threat, but they can’t eliminate it,” Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program in the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, commented.
In the simplest of terms, missile defense involves hitting a bullet with another bullet, which is no easy task.
“Missile defense systems will never provide 100 percent effectiveness … The addition of THAAD does not guarantee the protection of Seoul, but it does add another piece to the constantly changing puzzle of defense,” Rodger Baker, Vice President of Strategic Analysis at Stratfor, a geopolitical intelligence platform, told TheDCNF.
North Korea is rapidly developing the capabilities necessary to skirt allied ballistic missile defense systems.
“North Korea can probably build missiles (especially ER Scuds) faster and more cheaply than we can build and deploy defenses,” Lewis noted. In recent weapons tests and military drills, North Korea has practiced firing off multiple missiles in rapid succession or simultaneously to overwhelm enemy missile defense systems.
“This is a tactic called ‘salvo fire,’ which is designed to place greater stress on all types of ballistic missile defenses. I don’t know how many simultaneous attacks it would take to ‘saturate’ the battle-management systems in use today by the U.S., South Korean, or Japanese militaries, but the North Koreans seem determined to refine their salvo capabilities,” Joshua Pollack, editor of The Nonproliferation Review and senior research associate in the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, told TheDCNF. “Even if it didn’t succeed in saturating the defenses, it would at least more rapidly deplete the defense, which has a limited number of shots.”
“Enough simultaneous launches could overwhelm the THAAD system and increase the risk of a nuclear-armed ballistic missile reaching its target in South Korea,” Kelsey Davenport, director of Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Institute, told TheDCNF after North Korea launched three missiles at the same time last September.
The simultaneous launch of multiple missiles is “basic missile defense countermeasure,” Lewis told CNN. “One THAAD battery is not enough. We need at least two, if not many more,” he told TheDCNF.
“The good news is that if defenses hold up against the first salvo, it’s much easier to locate mobile missiles after they fire than before,” Pollack explained, adding, “Ballistic missiles are very hot and bright upon launch, so the point of origin can be detected by satellites very rapidly. Perhaps the empty North Korean missile launch vehicles could be hunted down before they have the chance to reload,” but there is no guarantee.
What Would Be The Post-Launch Reaction?
Many people assume that in the event that North Korea carried out a nuclear strike, successful or not, the U.S. would use nuclear weapons to turn the North into a crater.
If they use a nuclear weapon, do we want to pave Pyongyang and kill a million citizens? If the intent is to take out the leadership and that can be done with precision guided munitions, is it in global interests to use nuclear weapons? The answer is unclear.
“U.S. nuclear strategy is evolving away from an automatic ‘they use nukes, we use nukes, we take out every city they have’ response,” Klingner told TheDCNF, adding that if North Korea launches a nuclear strike, “it may not be an automatic nuclear response if we can accomplish our objectives through other means.”
The decision to use nuclear weapons to retaliate against North Korea would be a political decision, one likely based on the resulting public outcry, as well as the target and whether the attack was successful or not.
“The United States maintains and updates numerous scenarios for potential military contingencies, and ones regarding North Korea are frequently reviewed,” Baker told TheDCNF, “A limited North Korean action may initially engender a large U.S. military buildup and emergency action in the United Nations, but full military intervention would not likely be far behind.”
Once war breaks out, the situation quickly becomes much more complicated. The U.S. and its allies have the advantage, but any war on the peninsula would almost certainly be a high-casualty conflict.
While South Korea and Japan have their own armed forces, they would still be largely reliant on the U.S. for defense in the event of a serious crisis. South Korea does, however, have an independent strategy known as the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) plan, the third phase of the country’s three-stage defense.
The KMPR plan involves using special forces to cripple North Korean assets and eliminate the leadership. The South would also mobilize its missile and artillery forces.
South Korea’s KMPR plan focuses on the complete annihilation of certain essential pockets of Pyongyang.
“The North’s capital city will be reduced to ashes and removed from the map,” an unnamed defense official revealed to The Korea Times, “Every Pyongyang district, particularly where the North Korean leadership is possibly hidden, will be completely destroyed by ballistic missiles and high-explosive shells.”
Japan is considering developing defensive, counter-attack capabilities, but those discussions are still in the early phases.
Relying on conventional weapons alone, North Korea is unlikely to survive a protracted military conflict, but this is where multiple weapons of mass destruction come into play.
“North Korea could potentially cause massive damage to Seoul and its surrounding areas” in a conflict, Dr. Bruce Bennett, a senior defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, previously told TheDCNF. “If North Korea restrains itself and only employs conventional weapons in an assault on South Korea, it is unlikely to overwhelm South Korea’s defenses. But if it uses weapons of mass destruction and other asymmetric approaches, the North may be able to overcome South Korean defenses — there are always large uncertainties in any war.”
“I’m confident of the outcome of that war, which would be the defeat of North Korea,” former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter told ABC reporters, “I need to caution you … This is a war that would have an intensity of violence associated with it that we haven’t seen since the last Korean War. Seoul is right there on the borders of the DMZ, so even though the outcome is certain, it is a very destructive war.”
Who Would North Korea Bomb?
The North regularly threatens nuclear war against the U.S., which is perceived in Pyongyang as the greatest threat to the country’s long-term survival. It is unlikely, however, that North Korea has developed the long-range missile technology required to strike the continental U.S.
Still, the North is working tirelessly to develop a reliable, nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile and may be there in a matter of years.
“There is a real possibility that North Korea will be able to hit the U.S. with a nuclear-armed missile by the end of the first Trump term,” K.T. McFarland, the deputy White House national security adviser, previously remarked.
“We don’t know where they are on the path, but we know what path they are on,” Klingner told TheDCNF.
North Korea has launched satellites using Taepodong-style rockets, which could potentially serve as the technological foundation for an ICBM. The country has developed improved rocket engines that are better than most experts previously suspected. Also, the North appears to be working on two road-mobile ICBMs, the KN-08 and KN-14.
But, while the North has made clear progress, they have not yet demonstrated re-entry vehicle capability, and they are still developing a suitable nuclear warhead.
Were North Korea to launch a nuclear-armed missile at a foreign enemy, the two countries most likely to find themselves in the cross hairs are South Korea and Japan, collectively home to roughly 180 million people and around 75,000 U.S. troops. In the event that North Korea decided to fire on either of these two countries, a decision which the North would not take lightly, the Korean People’s Army could strike military bases and strategic assets, densely-populated civilian targets, or both.
Particularly disconcerting is that “the North Koreans say both,” Lewis explained to TheDCNF. “They hope the shock will cause us to recoil, and if it does not, they hope the damage slows us down.”
At the same time, North Korea has threatened, and even trained, to strike strategic assets, major ports, and critical military bases.
Days after the U.S. and South Korea announced plans to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile shield on South Korean soil, the North said it would turn Seongju, the deployment site, into a “sea of fire and a pile of ashes.”
When U.S. troops conduct joint military drills with allies for a possible conflict on the Korean peninsula, North Korea often drills as well, typically for a conventional or nuclear strike on allied troops, weapons, and defense systems.
During last year’s Foal Eagle drills, annual joint military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea for a contingency on the peninsula, North Korea launched two short-range missiles into waters off its east coast. “If we push the buttons to annihilate the enemies even right now, all bases of provocations will be reduced to seas in flames and ashes,” the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency reported at the time. Images of the maps from the launch and open source analysis indicate that the Korean People’s Army was rehearsing an attack on the port of Busan, where the USS Ohio, a nuclear-powered submarine, had just arrived for a port call.
North Korea fired four extended-range scuds into the Sea of Japan during this year’s drills. KCNA reported that the artillerymen of the KPA were “tasked to strike the bases of the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces in Japan.”
Open-source analysis of the maps shown in the North Korean propaganda videos following the launch suggested that North Korea was simulating a nuclear attack on U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in Japan, where the only forward-deployed squadron of Marine Corps F-35s is stationed.
“The U.S. and South Korea are practicing invading North Korea. North Korea is practicing nuking those forces,” Lewis previously told TheDCNF, noting a distinct change in North Korean missile launches.
Weapons reliability, as well as possible reunification goals, could impact North Korea’s choice of target.
“North Korean missiles, while improved, are still not all that accurate. Thus, while Pyongyang may prefer to target U.S. military facilities in Japan with its limited nuclear arsenal, it may also choose to fire some missiles toward large population centers in an attempt to rapidly shift the political cost of conflict,” Baker told TheDCNF. “Pyongyang is less likely to use its nuclear arsenal in strikes on South Korea, but may use chemical weapons to disrupt and slow any U.S. advance,” he further commented.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2017/04/14/what-would-happen-if-kim-jong-un-launched-a-nuclear-strike/#ixzz4eKLe2beL__________________________________________
The most powerful weapon invented till date is nuclear weapons. It can cause devastating effect; the shocking outcome can be found in the history of World War Two. More than 246,000 people were killed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Scientists categorized the nuclear weapons into two classes, one is Fission Bombs (A-Bombs) and another is Fusion Bombs (H-Bombs).
- Fission bombs (A-Bombs): It is the basic form of nuclear bomb. So far, this bomb was used in the war fields. How it works: in this type of bomb, at first neutrons hit heavy atom nuclei. It splits these nuclei. As a result, huge quantities of energy are released. In addition to that, additional neutrons are also released. These neutrons hit other nuclei and in this way, the process continues and produces huge energy.
- Fusion bombs (H-Bombs): Fusion weapons are many hundreds times of powerful than the fission bombs used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The arsenal of USA and Russia possess some of this kind of weapons. How it works: this bomb mainly uses the excessive heat of the fission bombs. This heat compresses and heats up two isotopes of hydrogen, deuterium and tritium. These two isotopes fuse and release great amounts of energy. As this bomb is required huge amount of energy, for that reason these weapons are named “Thermonuclear weapons” as well.
It is always better to make a plan to prevent or lessen the damages. For a contemplated nuclear war, you should make a plan in advance.
Here are some suggestions to make such plan:
Start planning: If a nuclear attack does take place, the best thing you should do is to avoid going outside. You should stay at your shelter for minimum 48 hours; it is better if you stay there longer. Try to store foods, water and medical supplies in advance. If you require a special necessary kit, do not forget to store it as well.
Store the dry and non-perishable foods: Dry and non-perishable foods can last for a long period of time. The best options are those foods, which contain carbohydrates in large quantity. Some of them are, honey, sugar, white rice, beans, oats, biscuits, powdered milk and so on. If you store canned food, do not forget to keep a can opener for them.
Water: You should store water in food grade plastic containers. Consider to consume one gallon water for one person every day. Besides that, try to keep some water purifier as well. For purifying water, you should preserve the household bleach and Lugol’s solution.
Medical supplies: Even some medical items can bring difference between life and death. It is better to store at least following items:
- First aid kit: You can purchase a pre-packed first aid kit. However, you can make it yourself. To make one, you will store sterile gauze, bandage, scissors, tweezers (to pick up small or thin objects), antibiotic ointment, a working thermometer and a blanket.
- Instruction booklet for the first aid kit: You should buy an authentic booklet for the first aid kit. For that reason, you can collect it from organizations like Red Cross. You can also google it, but it is better to find the booklet from an authentic source (article or video). You should learn how to bandage, apply CPR, treat a burnt area and help to prevent shock (insufficient blood flow through the important organs and tissue).
Collect instruments for communication: In a crucial time like nuclear attack, it will be very important for you to maintain communication. You have to be notified on the one hand, and you will need to inform others your position on the other hand. For these two purposes, you should store at least the following items:
- A radio: A radio is essential for knowing the updates. You may have a radio on your smartphones. However, you can store a particular radio for the emergency. If your radio is a battery operated model, keep some spare batteries as well. You can have a solar powered radio.
- A whistle: A whistle will be essential for giving signal.
- A cell phone: It should not be expected that the mobile companies would be able to run their operation in such situation. Nevertheless, you should store one. Try to find a solar charger for your phone.
Some other miscellaneous items: You should store some other important emergency kits. These are, flashlights and batteries for it, some dust masks, duct tapes, tissue and wipes for your personal hygiene, a wrench and pliers (for turning off gas and water line).
Always listen to the news update: Nuclear war will not come out of the blue, rather one country may apply its nuclear weapons on another country under a critical political condition. The most likely position is that, both countries are involved in a war with each other. For that reason, always listen to the news update, especially when your country is under huge political crisis. Even a particular region of a country may be destroyed if nuclear bomb is applied.
However, the immediate effect of it can be more dangerous. Every country uses certain code work to alert its people from such danger. For example, United States of America and Canada use the word DEFCON. DEF is derived from Defence and the CON is derived from Condition.
Assess the risk of nuclear attack and make a plan for evacuation: If you are able to keep recent updates of your country, you will be able to assess the possibility of being attacked by nuclear weapons. If you find that a nuclear attack is imminent, then you should leave your house and seek a suitable shelter where the effect of the nuclear bomb does not reach.
You can search following infrastructures near to your house and make a plan of taking shelters in these places considering the possibility of being attacked:
- The nearest airfield and naval base: It is highly likely that, these infrastructures will be attacked even in a limited nuclear war. The large and common airfields and naval areas will be highly risky area. It will be better if you avoid these areas.
- The commercial ports: Enemy countries will target these places to hamper and destroy the economy and communication within your country. These places will be under certain risk of being attacked by nuclear weapons.
- Runways (Over 10,000 feet or 3,048 m): These runways are also essential for communication and economy of your state. Avoid these places as the enemy country will target this place and try to destroy fully by using nuclear weapons.
- Buildings of government: These are crucial for operating local government of a particular area. For that reason, if it is a limited version of nuclear attack, then it is less likely to be attacked. However, if it is an all-out nuclear attack, then these infrastructures will certainly be attacked.
- Industrial cities: These are important for a country as these areas produce the necessary products. It is less likely that these areas will be under attack in the event of an extreme nuclear war.
HOW TO SURVIVE IN AN IMMINENT ATTACK
Now you are prepared for the nuclear attack. However, the question is how you can even survive in such attack when it is imminent. The next section of this article will guide you through this.
Now, consider the following possibilities:
- If you are in the vicinity of the blast (it is also called zero ground), then you cannot expect that you will be alive. The only exception could be if you are in a “very safe” place, which can protect you from the radiation.
- If you are a few miles out from zero ground, then you will have ten to thirty seconds until the waves of the blast hit you.
You should never look directly at the blast or fireball; it can cause blindness temporarily. Remember, the damage depends on the size and power of the bomb and the weather condition. You can suffer thermal burn (third degree) even if you are eight kilometres or five miles away from the ground zero.
If you are 32 kilometres or 20 miles away from the ground zero, the heat of the blast can burn your skin off. The wind of the attacked area will peak at almost 960 km/hr or 600 mph.
As you understand now how much time you have, consider following tasks to save you from the attack:
- Some countries have atomic shelters. Seek any such shelter. When hear the signal or warning from radio, reach and stay there safely.
- If you fail to find a shelter, it is better to lay your face down on a depressed area. Try to cover your skin as far as possible. You can also dig the ground quickly to do so.
- If you are in a house or indoor, stay there only if you are sure that that building will not suffer damage for the heat and radiation. Rather, the wall of the building will provide you protection. It also depends on how much close you are to the zero ground and the construction of the building. Stay away from windows; these will certainly suffer damage. It would be better if you are in a room without any window.
- Avoid inflammable things, such as oil or oil based material and nylon.
Make shield against the radiation: If you have decided to stay in a trench, then make a roof for it. If you are inside a house, then pile up soil, dirt or any other hard material. You can use following materials to reduce the effect of radiation:
- Steel: you need 21cm or 0.7 feet wide steel to reduce the radiation.
- Rock: you should pile up rocks to make 70 to 100 cm or two to three feet wide wall.
- Concrete: make a 66cm or 2.2 feet wide wall using concrete to protect you from the radiation.
- Wood: if you can make a 2.5 m or 8.8 feet wide wall by using wood, then you can save yourself from the radiation.
- Other materials: you can use following materials to make a radiation protective wall.
- Soil: the width of wall should be 1 m or 3.3 feet
- Ice: the width should be 2 m or 6.6 feet
- Snow: the wall should be 6m or 20-22 feet wide
Consider staying at the safe place for 8 to 9 days: You should never expose yourself to outside for the first 48 hours. The aim is to avoid the fission products and radiation of the blast. Fortunately, the deadliest fission product, radio-iodine, loses its half-life within the first eight to nine days.
Limit your exposure to it within this time limit. It takes ninety days to decay naturally. However, other two main products are Caesium and Strontium. They are absorbed by the nature; they can be found in the food products. Wind can carry them to the thousands miles away; so even if you are so far from the zero ground, chances are you are not actually safe.
Try to manage foods – even though you store your food, it will finish within first few days. You have to go outside to gather food. If aid does not reach at you, you have to collect foods from outside.
Here are some tips for you:
- Water: Never consume open water. You should collect water from spring, a covered well or some other underground sources. Stream and lake water are the last resorts. You can make filter by digging a one-foot hole from the bank and collect the water, which seeps in there. Boil that water before drinking to kill harmful bacteria. If you are in a building, the water is safe. However, if no water is in the house, then use the water from the faucet of highest point of the house and later use the water of the lowest point.
- Canned food: It is all right to consume them as long as there is no puncture in the can.
- Animals: You can eat animals, but be selective. Avoid heart, liver and kidneys. Do not eat meat close to the bones because it contains radiation.
- Plants: It is better to eat roots and undergrowth plants, such as carrots and potatoes.
- Proper clothing: Try to cover your entire body when you are going to expose yourself to the radiation. Clean your clothes and wash your exposed area as soon as possible.
Treat your affected area:
- Minor burn: Another name is beta burn. Immerse your burnt area into cold water for five minutes. Remove the contaminants by washing if skin begins to blister or break, but never break the blisters. Cover the area only this situation; otherwise wash the area and protect the burnt area applying Vaseline.
- Thermal burn: It is also named severe burn; it can even be life threatening. Remember these following steps to treat a thermal burn.
- Avoid any further contamination.
- Remove the covering cloth very gently. If it is stuck on the burnt area, then do not remove it. Do not apply ointment on the burnt area. In serious scenario, call the medical team.
- Never use a usual sterile medical dressing, which are not particularly intended for burnt area. Non-adhesive dressing is suitable to use for short time; you can use plastic wrap for longer period.
- Shock prevention: Another crucial health issue is insufficient blood circulation through the important organs and tissues of the body. It can cause various severe problems such as huge loss of blood and deep burns. Common symptoms are thirst, sweating (even the skin is cool), rapid heartbeat and pale skin. Massage the chest to increase and maintain the heartbeat and respiration. Loosen the tight clothes.
The saddest truth is that, it is very difficult for a victim to survive.
When victim’s death is imminent then it will be better to apply the resources to those who are in better medical condition. Very young and old persons are vulnerable to nuclear attacks.